Which auto company is going to control the future market?

"shpuker" (shpuker)
07/27/2017 at 19:00 • Filed to: None

Between Tesla’s diversification into the battery industry and Toyota bringing their R&D ideas to light, who is going to be setting the industries direction moving forward? WTF even is the industry going to look like in 10 years time? Let’s talk.

My opinion:

For the sake of argument let’s presume Toyota isn’t bluffing about their solid state battery tech and that Tesla rolls the Model 3 out with minimal set backs. Now flash forward to 2020.

2020: At this point Tesla has had the Model 3 in production for years, GM’s sales of the Bolt are solid but trailing, Toyota is still 2 years to market, and Polestar is months from launching it’s first all electric sedan, the Lucid-One. Yea in this fucked world Volvo bought out Lucid and merged them with Polestar, fuck with me.

But let’s get back to it. With increasingly strict regulation in Europe and a number of high population US states taking an initiative and following suit the all electric field is in control. Tesla and Polestar are the industry benchmarks and Toyota/GM are the two closest to catching up. Ford is scrambling to rush to market and FCA has given up and accepted a buy out by GAC Group. GAC Group Formally announced its merger with LeEco and Faraday a year prior and it’s promised delivery date for the first batch of the FF91 is coming up fast.

2027: Tesla’s HyperLoop has now reached the entire west coast, Toyota’s new battery technology catapulted them into command of the EV world and upon the release of their new 1,200 mile BEV Ford formally announced it would be merging with GM. Polestar has surpassed Tesla in sales for the first time in its history, but Tesla has just announced the release of an improved variant to Toyota’s solid state batteries, promising a 2,000 mile 1,200 Lb*Ft of torque 3rd gen Model S within 2 years time. GM is happily cornering the market on heavy duty pickups for years now but finds itself under pressure to change as Tesla, Toyota, and GAC/FCA all roll out EV HD pickups with fast charge times under half an hour and a range of over 500 miles.

That’s enough for now, where do ya’ll see this shit show heading?

DISCUSSION (16)

That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 19:09

Probably BMW, because people seem to buy them even when they’re completely the wrong car for them and even when they’re extremely ugly just because they’re BMWs. That’s a powerful thing.

Nibby > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 19:12

Oldsmobile, duh

xc90v8/I4 :( > That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms
07/27/2017 at 19:14

Where do you live?

That’s what Audis are for here.

BugEyedBimmer - back in the Saddle Dakota Leather > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 19:17

Don’t forget, BMW is going to have plug in hybrid versions of most of its lineup by 2020. And there will be an all electric version of the next 3 Series as well.

Sam > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 19:21

It’ll either be Japanese or German domination of the market. And American manufacturers will take about 5-10 years to catch up (as they tend to do)

Tekamul > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 19:22

LOL and LeEco, FF and hyperloop.

Without an improvement in production, the grid’s CO2 impact will become a greater focus after the major manufacturers have exhausted their tax incentives.

Gov’t focus will shift to “cradle to grave” emissions, and consumers will be incentivised to keep cars on the road longer.

My bird IS the word > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 19:41

Personally, I am hoping to see Lockheed’s fusion prototype successfully revolutionize the energy Industry, and Toyota’s hydrogen to surpass batteries as a renewable and environmentally friendly portable fuel source.

Honeybunchesofgoats > Nibby
07/27/2017 at 19:42

You joke, but if I were GM, I’d relaunch Olds, Saturn, Pontiac, and maybe Saab to tap into the hipster millennial market.

I’d market it as General Motors Artisnal Reserve and sell one or two cars from each marque as “small batch”

Honeybunchesofgoats > Honeybunchesofgoats
07/27/2017 at 19:43

Each would cost $45,000, but I’d offer a 450 month $100 lease with parental consigner.

Chariotoflove > Nibby
07/27/2017 at 19:52

Thank you! At least someone else sees it.

Chariotoflove > Honeybunchesofgoats
07/27/2017 at 19:53

Not a bad plan.

Bman76 (hates WS6 hoods, is on his phone and has 4 burners now) > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 20:16

Not GM or Ford if they kill off all the cars they’re rumored to be.

nermal > Tekamul
07/27/2017 at 20:38

There’s zero chance of the government putting in any regulations that will encourage customers to NOT buy a new car. Zero.

Otherwise, I think that we will see a shift in the next 10 years towards personal power generation - Home solar power systems in particular will continue to grow in popularity as the cost of them drops.

nermal > shpuker
07/27/2017 at 20:45

I don’t really think the extended range is needed or desirable from a market perspective. A 300 - 500 mile range will be sufficient for nearly all use cases, especially once EV charging grows to be closer in availability to gas stations.

Both Nissan and BMW are currently doing well in regards to building an EV and actually selling them. That will fair well for them as cars begin to electrify more.

As far as pickups go, I think you need to separate the 1/2 tons from the HDs. An all-electric 1/2 ton with a 500 mile range and reasonable cost will sell well. My guess is that Ford will be first up with a mainstream one, as they seem to lead the others from a technology perspective. HD pickups will be the last to electrify, and I don’t think diesel engines in them are going anywhere any time soon.

HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles > Honeybunchesofgoats
07/27/2017 at 22:26

Just Saturn, and Saab. The Saturns would be only plastic bodied Wagons. And the Saabs turbocharged FWD liftback sports coupes.

pip bip - choose Corrour > shpuker
07/28/2017 at 05:18

chinese will rule the world.